Indonesia’s captive coal build-out is increasingly recognised as a critical part of the country’s industrial and energy landscape. Previous analysis has shown how captive coal is becoming commercially financed and structurally embedded upstream.

This release shifts the focus from finance to projects. Drawing on newly assembled project-level data, we examine where captive coal is being built, which industrial activities are driving demand, how ownership and control are structured, and where future capacity remains uncertain. By mapping industrial parks, processing assets, and associated power supply across nickel, aluminium, and emerging EV-related sectors, the analysis reveals how captive coal is crystallising into a newly built industrial system.

Our insights show that Indonesia’s captive coal expansion is not a uniform trajectory, but a set of sector-specific pathways: increasingly locked in around nickel, far more uncertain in aluminium, and already beginning to diverge from coal-based power in parts of the EV downstream.

Key findings: 

• Indonesia’s captive coal is crystallising into a newly built industrial system—anchored first and foremost in nickel, and increasingly testing its limits in aluminium. Project-level data show that captive coal capacity is highly concentrated in a small number of mega industrial parks. Nickel processing parks form the system’s core: assets are already built, power demand is locked in, and coal-based captive generation is structurally embedded. Aluminium parks, by contrast, are emerging as the next anchor, but one that carries significantly higher power requirements and greater structural risk.

• Control over captive coal remains oligopolistic, but sectoral expansion is reshaping who holds influence. A narrow set of actors continues to dominate ownership and decision-making. As captive coal expands beyond nickel into aluminium and solar PV-related manufacturing, Indonesian firms are increasingly edging ahead of Chinese owners. This shift signals a changing centre of control and raises new questions around domestic industrial strategy, financing discipline, and long-term commitment.

• The future of Indonesia’s captive coal pipeline hinges on aluminium, where a structural power gap of at least 4 GW exposes how little of the pipeline is truly locked in. While Indonesia’s captive coal pipeline appears large on paper, project-level analysis shows that much of its future capacity depends on a small number of aluminium-linked developments, new industrial parks, and unsettled power supply pathways. The aluminium pipeline alone reveals a structural power gap of at least 4 GW. In contrast, the nickel sector is becoming increasingly asset-anchored, while EV downstream development is beginning to diverge from coal-based power pathways altogether.

For access to project-level data, click here.

The datasets include a power-source-agnostic mapping of Indonesia’s industrial system, covering:

• All nickel-related projects in Indonesia are expected to come online from 2023 onwards, capturing the full universe of projects regardless of power source and extending beyond captive coal–anchored analysis.
• All aluminium-related projects across the full project pipeline in Indonesia, irrespective of whether captive coal is used as the power source.
• All battery and EV manufacturing projects (downstream) in Indonesia, covering downstream segments regardless of power source, including projects not connected to captive coal generation.
• Industrial parks across Indonesia, providing a comprehensive (though not exhaustive) list of industrial parks regardless of power source.

Our Previous Output

43 GW Coal in Indonesia: Embedded Upstream, Going Captive Commercial

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